China is expected to shift its agricultural trade toward higher-value exports and more diversified markets during the 15th Five-Year Plan period (2026-30) to enhance competitiveness, according to a newly released industry report.

The China Agricultural Sector Development Report 2026, released by the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences on Wednesday, revealed that the country's agricultural exports reached a record $104.16 billion in 2025, demonstrating strong resilience.

The report, unveiled by Hu Xiangdong, director of the academy's Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development, focuses on key issues including food consumption trends, agricultural mechanization, food security and agricultural trade competitiveness.

While export growth remains robust, the vegetable, fruit and aquatic product industries are entering a new stage of development, shifting from an export-oriented model toward a more balanced approach, serving both domestic and international markets, the report said.

China's vegetable exports continue to generate stable trade surpluses, supported by strong competitiveness in labor-intensive and processed products such as garlic, onions, edible fungi and potatoes. Fruit exports are concentrated in apples, pears, citrus fruits, grapes and processed products, while aquatic exports are led by live fish, mollusks and processed seafood products, it added.

The report identified eight product categories with strong export growth potential over the next five years, including processed fruits and nuts, melons, frozen fruits, fish fillets and frozen vegetables.

Rather than focusing solely on expanding export volumes, agricultural trade should emphasize improving product quality, processing capacity, cold-chain logistics and supply chain efficiency, Hu said.

He also called for greater efforts to build regional brands and expand access to markets involved in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership and the Belt and Road Initiative.

Meanwhile, China imported $207.41 billion worth of agricultural products in 2025, roughly double the value of its exports, although the country's agricultural trade deficit narrowed by nearly 24 percent compared to 2021.

The report forecasts that China's soybean self-sufficiency rate will rise from 15.8 percent to 21.5 percent by 2030, while self-sufficiency rates for edible oils and dairy products will also improve.

However, imports will remain important for products such as soybeans, beef, sugar and feed grains. The report identified soybeans and beef as particularly vulnerable sectors requiring closer monitoring and policy support. To address these challenges, researchers proposed combining export upgrading with more diversified import sources.

Zhao Changbao, director of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs' Research Center for Rural Economy, said growing geopolitical tensions, shipping risks, fertilizer supply disruptions and shifting trade policies could increase volatility in global agricultural markets.

He called for stronger risk-warning mechanisms and scenario-based analysis for commodities with high import dependence, particularly soybeans and beef.

Huang Jikun, dean of the School of Advanced Agricultural Sciences at Peking University, said future competitiveness will depend on policy innovation, investment and technological progress.

China needs to evaluate different development scenarios for agricultural trade and production, Huang said.

"With the right institutional innovation and policy support, some agricultural sectors may continue expanding their export advantages rather than seeing them decline," he said.

For instance, China's aquatic products industry has been affected by conservation measures, including the 10-year fishing ban in the Yangtze River, which is now more than halfway through its implementation.

"If those policies are adjusted in the future, aquatic products could once again become a very important export category, and the entire seafood trade trend could change," Huang said.