The international system is entering a period of deep turbulence. The relative stability the world enjoyed after the Cold War — underpinned by multilateral institutions, open markets, and great-power restraint — is coming apart under the weight of geopolitical tensions, intensifying economic competition, and rising unilateralism.

From Ukraine to the Middle East, crises are coming faster and hitting harder, while existing institutions struggle to keep pace. At the same time, long-term challenges like climate change, energy insecurity, and public health risks continue to grow.

In such a world, the trajectory of China-US relations has become a most consequential variable for global stability. As big nations, they have a special responsibility to manage their relations in a way that continues to deliver for global stability.

A strategic foundation for security

At the most basic level, global stability depends on preventing catastrophic conflicts between major powers. History shows that when great-power rivalry escalates unchecked, the consequences are tragic. Despite tensions, China and the United States today remain at peace. That in itself is a critical foundation for global security.

On another level, a stable China-US relationship functions as a form of systemic insurance for the world as it helps contain conflicts in other regions, significantly reducing the risk of them spiraling into a global war and keeping diplomatic solutions viable.

Economic stability in a fragmenting world

Today, the economic fallout from geopolitical instability is increasingly visible. Conflicts in the Middle East have driven up oil prices, adding to inflationary pressures in many countries. Disruptions to economic activities — whether caused by war, sanctions, or strategic decoupling — have further complicated development prospects for both developed and developing nations.

These impacts are uneven but profound. Rising energy costs strain household budgets, elevate production expenses, and hit vulnerable economies the hardest. Agriculture faces even more serious challenges: fertilizer production, which is energy-intensive, becomes more expensive or constrained, threatening planting cycles and raising the risk of food insecurity.

In this context, China and the United States — the world's biggest manufacturer and its largest consumer market — have a shared interest in stabilizing the global economy. Even when their policies are not fully aligned, avoiding disruptive moves can help temper volatility. Stability, in other words, is not just a security concern but an economic necessity.

Constructive competition

Beyond security and economics, the future of global stability also depends on how the two big nations — with different political systems and cultures — manage their competition. The zero-sum assumption — that one's gain is the other's loss — has been proven simplistic in human history. More often than not, progress occurred not by eliminating a competitor but through a mutually beneficial dynamic in which different parties coexist, compete, and learn from each other, generating mutual adaptation and innovation.

This is the logic of constructive competition. It starts with a simple recognition: competition can be good for all parties involved. With the right principles and rules, not least respect and mutual benefit, it can actually drive efficiency, innovation, and responsiveness. As such, it needs not degenerate into hostility or exclusion.

Toward a consensus for stability

The case for a stable China-US relationship is not based on idealism but a sober calculation of shared interests. It rests on a limited yet urgent premise: in an era of overlapping crises, stability itself is a common good.

This calls for a minimal consensus. Both sides must recognize that the costs of destabilizing competition, such as economic fragmentation, technological blockade, and the risk of conflicts, are ultimately unsustainable. In practical terms, this means maintaining respectful engagement, following international law, and preserving areas of functional cooperation even amid broader competition.

The world cannot wait

The world today is not merely watching China-US relations; it is being shaped by them. From conflict zones to trading ports, from supply chains to financial stability, the ripple effects are global.

Rising inflation, disrupted logistics, and growing social pressures are lived realities for millions of people. Small businesses failing due to rising costs, farmers struggling with fertilizer shortages, and households coping with higher living expenses — all reflect a system under strain. In this world, stability is no longer a secondary objective. It is the primary condition for development.

Humanity has rarely faced such a convergence of challenges. And rarely has it depended so directly on the choices of two countries. China and the United States, for all their differences, share a fundamental responsibility: to provide stability for a world that urgently needs it.

The author is a lecturer at the Country and Area Studies Academy in Beijing Foreign Studies University. She was a Rajawali Fellow at Harvard Kennedy School from 2011-2012 and assistant to the president of The International Union for Conservation of Nature. Her research interest focuses on Sino-US relations and US diplomacy.

The views don't necessarily reflect those of China Daily.

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