Policy push

However, there is a clear policy push in the other direction, Wijaya said, noting Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto making energy transition a priority, with Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Bahlil Lahadalia driving efforts such as expanding solar power, reducing diesel use, and accelerating two-wheeler electric vehicle adoption.

"So while the war is distant, its effects are not. It is shaping how Indonesia consumes energy, with mixed environmental outcomes," Wijaya said.

Saab, from AFED, said the conflict in the Middle East, as well as in Ukraine, "will have long-standing consequences on the environment for many decades".

However, the major impact might be on the energy sector, with vulnerabilities exposed, both for producing and consuming countries.

"Producers have to expedite diversifying their economies, to minimize dependence on oil and gas for income, and redraw supply routes.

"The wars will certainly delay achieving development targets across the region, putting reconstruction ahead of any other goals. This will also have a great stress on resources, from water to energy to building materials, with huge environmental impact," Saab said.

Nabeela Siddiqui, assistant professor at Vinayaka Mission's Law School, a constituent unit of Vinayaka Mission's Research Foundation in Chennai, India, said that the relationship between environmental health and national security "is not incidental in the Middle East, but it is foundational".

She said scarce water resources, fragile ecosystems, and climate vulnerability mean that environmental degradation directly threatens state stability, civilian welfare, and regional peace.

"The challenge, then, is not simply recognizing this link, but enforcing accountability for environmental harm even when conflict is ongoing. International humanitarian law provides one of the most powerful entry points," Siddiqui said.

"Embedding environmental restoration targets directly within ceasefire and peace frameworks — specifying, for instance, the supervised reopening of water treatment facilities — elevates environmental concerns from diplomatic afterthoughts to concrete, monitored obligations," Siddiqui said.

"Ultimately, the most durable strategy combines rigorous real-time evidence collection with financial conditionality — ensuring that whoever signs a peace agreement also accepts responsibility for the land, water, and air that their populations depend upon," Siddiqui said.

jan@chinadailyapac.com