Immediate damage

The immediate damage is visible, she said, citing refinery fires releasing toxic hydrocarbons and sulfur compounds into the air, the risk of oil entering the marine environment through the Strait of Hormuz, and the ongoing threat to ecosystems already operating under extreme stress from warming seas and chronic pollution.

"The Gulf and the Sea of Oman support over 1,600 fish species and the second-most important dugong population in the world after Australia. Military activity in these waters compounds pressures that were already approaching critical thresholds."

She said the less visible dimension may prove more consequential. A new analysis suggests the first 14 days of the conflict released more than 5 million metric tons of carbon dioxide, equivalent to the combined annual output of 84 small nations.

The largest share of immediate atmospheric emissions comes from fuel consumption by military aircraft and naval vessels, which generate up to 30 times the carbon output of infrastructure destruction.

"Rerouted civilian aviation across the region adds further emissions. The targeting of gas storage facilities risks releasing uncombusted methane, a far more potent greenhouse gas in the short term," Al Busaidi said. "These invisible contributions feed directly into the atmospheric imbalance driving more extreme weather patterns across the region and beyond."

From energy to food, the ongoing conflict has sent global markets into a frenzy, with the International Energy Agency saying the situation was worse than the 1970s energy crisis and the Ukraine-Russia conflict combined.

The uncertainty has prompted the Philippines, which holds the Association of Southeast Asian Nations chair this year, to be the first country to declare a national energy emergency.

"From my perspective as a corporate lawyer in Jakarta, the war in Iran may feel far away, but its environmental impact is not," said Glenn Wijaya, a senior associate at the Christian Teo & Partners law firm.

War "is inherently carbon-intensive", he said, and over time, this feeds into climate change and rising sea levels. This "is a very real and immediate concern for Indonesia", the largest economy in ASEAN, accounting for nearly 40 percent of the bloc's GDP.

"At the same time, higher oil prices are creating a tricky balance. On one hand, they push countries — including Indonesia — toward cleaner energy," Wijaya said.

"On the other, they can also lead to greater short-term reliance on fossil fuels to keep energy affordable and stable. Recent discussions about increasing coal production quota reflect that reality."