In rereading the book Lure the Tiger Out of the Mountains: The 36 Stratagems of Ancient China, by Gao Yuan, I pondered how thinking like an ancient Chinese might help the world avoid the Thucydides Trap.

The Thucydides Trap, a term coined by Harvard academic Graham Allison, is a hypothesis in international relations that is summarized from historical experience. It holds that when a rising power challenges the dominance of an established power, structural fear — rather than malicious intent — greatly raises the risk of confrontation and full-scale war.

The Thucydides Trap entered global discourse again recently when President Xi Jinping asked US President Donald Trump, during their recent summit in Beijing, "Can China and the United States transcend the Thucydides Trap and forge a new paradigm for major-country relations?"

Although some in the West hold a narrow view that Western thought is the sole source of wisdom, how ancient Chinese pursued challenges has an impact on current Chinese thinking and should not be overlooked by the US administration.

While thought and theory in Western international relations often focus on zero-sum power struggles, ancient Chinese philosophy prioritizes patience, indirect action and the preservation of relationships.

Here is how concepts from Lure the Tiger Out of the Mountains and classical Chinese philosophy can help the two nations avoid the Thucydides Trap, which, if fallen into, would have deadly consequences for both countries as well as for all of humanity.

The stratagem "lure the tiger out of the mountains" advises against attacking an enemy where they are strongest. Instead, it suggests changing the environment or context to make them vulnerable.

Avoiding the Thucydides Trap in modern diplomacy means shifting competition away from military flashpoints. Instead, nations can channel their rivalry into constructive arenas like green energy, space exploration, fixing trade barriers, or global health. By changing the "mountain" — the context of the competition — the risk of direct and accidental military conflict can drop significantly.

In Sun Tzu's The Art of War, the ultimate achievement is "to win without fighting".

Western deterrence theory often relies on visible, overwhelming military buildup, which can trigger a "security dilemma" in which both sides keep arming out of fear. The Cold War between the US and the Soviet Union makes this point clearly. The Chinese strategic tradition views open warfare as a failure of strategy.

If both ruling and rising powers adopt the mindset that actual warfare represents a mutual strategic defeat, they are more likely to seek diplomatic solutions.

While both approaches are examples of deterrence, the US-China economic reliance makes their relationship one of deep mutual dependency rather than strict ideological confrontation. This unique interconnectedness creates another layer of complexity.

Western political systems operate on short election cycles (two to four years), which often forces leaders to take aggressive, short-term stances to appease domestic voters. Ancient Chinese thought emphasizes generational timelines.

The Thucydides Trap is fueled by the fear of imminent displacement. If a rising power utilizes profound strategic patience — growing its influence incrementally without forcing a sudden, dramatic pivot in the global order — the ruling power has time to adapt. This slow, structural accommodation lowers the friction that typically sparks rapid, panicky escalations.

Traditional Western geopolitics often seeks a "balance of power" through opposing alliances (like NATO versus the Warsaw Pact), which draws hard lines in the sand. Chinese philosophy relies on the concept of yin and yang — the idea that opposing forces are interconnected, interdependent and necessary for harmony.

Instead of viewing a rival as an existential enemy that must be defeated, this mindset views the rival as a permanent, necessary counterweight. It shifts the goal from complete dominance to coexistence. Nations can fiercely compete in economics while simultaneously acknowledging that they need each other to maintain global financial stability.

The world is hoping that the inevitability of the Thucydides Trap can be avoided.

There are positive ways the US and China can shape the world. Let's spend our collective intellect working toward that end.

The author was former deputy chief of staff to former Michigan governor James Blanchard and was president and CEO of the Economic Council of Palm Beach County, Florida.

The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.