A new El Nino pattern — a climate phenomenon characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean — is expected to develop over the coming months and gather in intensity later in the year, raising the risk of higher global temperatures and extreme weather.

Recent monitoring data shows that sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific are continuously rising, a key signal that the climate pattern is developing, the National Climate Center said.

The El Nino pattern is likely to set in around May, intensify during the summer and autumn, and last at least until the end of the year, the center added.

Recent online discussions claiming that the world could experience the strongest El Nino phenomenon in 140 years and potentially record-breaking global heat have attracted widespread public attention.

However, Chen Lijuan, chief forecaster at the climate center, said it is still too early to conclude that global temperatures will break records this year.

"Considering the lagging effect of El Nino, it is premature to say that the Earth will witness record heat this year. But the related risks of such a weather event are clearly increasing," Chen said.

El Nino occurs when sea surface temperatures in parts of the tropical Pacific become much warmer than normal. The warming allows large amounts of heat stored in the ocean to be released into the atmosphere, raising global temperatures.

When such a phenomenon occurs in conjunction with the long-term trend of global warming, it can trigger more frequent, intense and longer-lasting heat waves, according to the center.

The full warming effect of El Nino often appears with a delay and typically peaks the following year. "The possibility of record-breaking heat cannot yet be determined for the current year," Chen said.

Wang Yaqi, a senior engineer at the National Climate Center, said that stronger El Nino patterns can have broader impacts on the economy, energy systems and public health, as they are often associated with extreme heat, droughts and heavy rainfall.

Intense rainfall during strong El Nino patterns can trigger flooding that can force some hydropower stations to reduce output or suspend operations, while drought conditions reduce water inflows, thus sharply cutting electricity generation potential.

In the health sector, changes in rainfall and temperature patterns linked to El Nino can increase the spread of some infectious diseases. Drought and extreme heat also raise the risk of wildfires, Wang said.

The risks linked to El Nino are not driven by the climate pattern alone. They often emerge from the interaction of multiple climate factors, with El Nino acting as a "trigger" within a broader system influenced by global warming.

It is estimated that for every 1 C increase in atmospheric temperature, the air's capacity to hold moisture rises by about 7 percent, which means higher temperatures can accelerate evaporation and intensify droughts, while also increasing the likelihood of extreme rainfall and flooding when precipitation occurs.

The combination of global warming and El Nino-driven warming could increase the chances of compound extreme weather events, including more intense heat waves and sudden shifts between drought and heavy rainfall, Wang said.