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Pursuit of marginal negotiating gains risks damaging the hard-won ceasefire: China Daily editorial

chinadaily.com.cn | Updated: 2026-04-09 20:48
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There is an old, unsentimental observation that two levers move human affairs — interest and fear. Whether one is a king or a beggar, the calculus rarely strays far from these twin forces. It is a useful lens through which to read the fragile ceasefire now tentatively holding between the United States, along with Israel, and Iran, even as bombs continue to fall.

The two-week truce brokered by Pakistan, as well as other mediators, is meant to pause a conflict that has already exacted a heavy toll on lives and on the global economy. Yet almost as soon as it was announced, the conflict appeared to mutate rather than subside. Israeli strikes on Lebanon — the most intense since the conflict began — underscored a familiar truth: ceasefires in the Middle East often rearrange violence rather than end it.

From the perspective of Tel Aviv, the logic is not difficult to decipher. Israel seeks both to degrade Hezbollah and to demonstrate to a shaken domestic audience that deterrence remains intact.

This is where fear and interest intertwine. For Iran, restraint carries risks of appearing weak; retaliation risks validating the narrative of a "reckless" regional actor. For Washington, the incentives are equally tangled. The US claims that it wants to stabilize energy markets and avoid a prolonged conflict, yet it remains tethered to Israel's security agenda in ways that increasingly blur the line between ally and proxy.

Indeed, one of the more striking features of this crisis is the divergence of US and Israeli interests in the conflict.

The conflict itself has unfolded in a manner that borders on being indiscriminate. Gulf energy infrastructure has been hit. The Strait of Hormuz, a choke point for roughly a fifth of global energy supplies, has been turned into a bargaining chip. Meanwhile, Washington has alternated between cajoling and threatening its own allies, including NATO allies, to join it in its military adventurism.

This is not war as a controlled instrument of policy. It is war as theater — coercive, improvisational and increasingly detached from coherent endgames.

Little wonder, then, that the ceasefire's scope is already contested. Does it include Lebanon? It is, rather, a diagnostic test. If one seeks peace, the ceasefire can be interpreted broadly. If one seeks war, it can be narrowed at will.

Such elasticity may be tactically useful, but it is strategically corrosive. The pattern of "fight while talking" is not new. Many conflicts that end in negotiation pass through such a phase, with each side attempting to convert battlefield gains into diplomatic leverage. But this particular conflict carries a wider systemic risk. Its effects ripple through worldwide. To prolong it deliberately in pursuit of marginal negotiating gains is to gamble with the global economy.

That is why the role of responsible mediators matters. China has consistently urged an immediate cessation of hostilities, advocating the resolution of the disputes through political and diplomatic means as the only path to lasting peace and stability in the Middle East. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning stressed on Thursday, in reply to questions on Beijing's contribution to the ceasefire, that China will continue to work unswervingly to de-escalate the situation and help quell the conflict.

Beijing supports the relevant parties engaging in talks. It is committed to promoting a peaceful resolution of the conflict, and urges the belligerents to refrain from the use or the threat of use of force during talks.

A basic question emerges for the protagonists: What exactly are they fighting for now? The inability of the US and Israel to secure a swift victory already hints at miscalculation.

Even if negotiations do take place in Islamabad, trust will be thin. In the end, those who are seeking a winner-take-all result from this conflict may discover they have secured very little, as no party will emerge from the conflict as a real winner. Worse, they may find that their position is no stronger — and perhaps weaker — than before the first shots were fired.

Whether this hard-won truce matures into a genuine foundation for peace or merely serves as a prelude to a more deadly and costly conflict depends on the choices the belligerents make from this moment on. They should remember that the right course is almost never the easy one.

But the right course is the most worthwhile for all the parties concerned. It leads to a future in which the sovereignty, territorial integrity and security of Iran and other Middle East countries, including Israel, are safeguarded.

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