China has unveiled a comprehensive strategic roadmap to tackle the looming "retirement wave" of solar panels, aiming to transform waste management into a high-tech circular economy.

Six government departments, led by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, recently issued the guiding opinions on promoting the comprehensive utilization of photovoltaic modules.

This signals a decisive shift toward standardized, large-scale recycling as the nation's early solar installations reach the end of their 25-to-30-year life spans, said industry experts.

"China leads the world in PV installation capacity, and early modules are now entering their retirement phase," said Pan Helin, a member of the Expert Committee for Information and Communication Economy, which is part of the MIIT.

Pan said that if handled improperly, it could result in significant resource waste.

The industry currently faces bottlenecks like high costs, technical complexity and a lack of unified standards, making State guidance essential to build a robust disposal system, he added.

According to the guiding opinions, by 2027, China aims to reach a cumulative recycling volume of 250,000 metric tons of PV modules, supported by breakthroughs in key technologies such as layer separation and component extraction.

By 2030, the nation expects to have a fully integrated industrial chain capable of handling a massive surge in decommissioned equipment, it said.

Industry data underscore the urgency of this policy. According to the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, after 2030, the volume of retired PV modules is expected to reach approximately 1.4 million tons, or about 18 gigawatts.

By 2040, this figure is projected to skyrocket to 20 million tons, equivalent to 253 GW of capacity, it said.

This tidal wave of waste carries immense economic potential.

According to estimates by the 2024 White Paper on China's Photovoltaic Recycling and Circular Utilization, the cumulative market scale for PV recycling will reach approximately 26 billion yuan ($3.6 billion) by 2030.

As the volume of retired panels continues to grow, this market could balloon to 420 billion yuan by 2050, it said.

The new guidelines emphasize "green design" from the manufacturing stage. Producers are encouraged to use materials that are easier to disassemble and separate.

Furthermore, the policy promotes the use of recycled materials — including PV frames and glass — in the production of new modules, fostering a closed-loop system.

According to Cinda Securities, in terms of processing, the industry is moving toward "thermal decomposition", which offers shorter reaction times and higher recovery rates compared to traditional physical or chemical methods.

However, this technology currently requires significant investment and suffers from a fragmented market landscape lacking large-scale leaders, it said.

The prevalence of illegal recycling channels remains a significant challenge. The CPIA said that of the 1.2 million tons of modules expected to be retired by 2025, formal enterprises with environmental qualifications currently have an annual capacity of only 300,000 tons.

This leaves a 900,000-ton gap that often flows into "small workshops". These unlicensed operators compete on low prices, but could cause severe environmental damage due to a lack of protective measures.

To counter this, the government plans to nurture "backbone" enterprises and "little giants", or outstanding specialized, high-tech small and medium-sized enterprises.

Financial institutions are also being guided to provide credit support for green technical upgrades and recycling projects.

"For manufacturers, this is an opportunity for industrial upgrading. For recycling firms, it is a chance to build a 'moat' through technological exploration. Ultimately, this ensures that the retirement of old tech facilitates high-quality development through the adoption of more efficient, new-generation solar products," Pan said.