As China launches its 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-30), experts highlighted the country's push for technological self-reliance and structural reforms, viewing these as key to fostering high-quality development and global stability amid rising uncertainties.

China has set a pragmatic GDP growth target of 4.5 to 5 percent for 2026, alongside goals of creating more than 12 million urban jobs and keeping consumer price inflation around 2 percent.

The Greater China team of APCO Worldwide, an advisory and advocacy firm in Washington, described the target as "a more cautious and realistic assessment of domestic and external conditions". It said in an analysis, "China's 2026 Two Sessions: 6 Key Takeaways", published on Wednesday that the target aligns well with long-term sustainable goals.

Chinese Ambassador to the United States Xie Feng also emphasized that "in an increasingly unstable and uncertain world, China will be an oasis of certainty and an anchor of stability", in his remarks delivered on Friday at the "China in Springtime" Global Dialogue US Session.

Sourabh Gupta, a senior fellow at the Institute for China-America Studies in Washington, said the 4.5-5 percent GDP range "is a welcome development, going for a lower growth target".

"The reason is it's not that China cannot achieve the 5 percent growth target if it wanted to, but that would have to happen with the government putting extra stimulus, throwing more money into the economy, and just hitting an artificial growth target," Gupta said.

This approach enables the economy to "run on its own steam", allowing for cleanup in sectors such as property and local government finances, he said.

The comments align with the 2026 two sessions, which concluded on Thursday with the National People's Congress approving the outline of the 15th Five-Year Plan and the Government Work Report.

The work report has set a general public budget of 30 trillion yuan ($4.34 trillion) for the first time and plans to issue 1.3 trillion yuan in ultra-long special treasury bonds, which Gupta sees as tools for flexibility in de-risking.

"The numbers are very similar to last year's numbers," he said.

"The government has left itself flexibility to use this right in a way that could stimulate growth. It has also left itself the flexibility to use these sums in other ways that won't necessarily stimulate growth but will help de-risk the economy and the financial sector."

Structural adjustment

This reflects China's prioritizing "structural adjustment" over aggressive stimulus, Gupta said. "So this is more of a structural adjustment agenda rather than a growth agenda, which the government is trying to enable. They're making the right decisions because China is no longer in anything like a deflationary spiral. It's growing out of it."

An important part of the plan is advancing "new quality productive forces" in fields such as AI, 6G and quantum tech to achieve technological independence. Gupta said this could positively influence global standards and supply chains.

In an analysis titled "What to look out for at this year's meeting of China's legislature", Jonathan A. Czin, a fellow in the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution, said Chinese leadership's emphasis "is a dogged pursuit of 'high-quality' — if slower — growth in leading-edge manufacturing arenas". The plan will "seek to set China up as a major future innovator", he said.

Neil Thomas, a fellow on Chinese politics at the Asia Society Policy Institute's Center for China Analysis, said "signals from Beijing policy circles suggest a shift in the GDP growth target from around 5 percent to 4.5 to 5 percent".

The 15th Five-Year Plan will emphasize "technological sovereignty, strategic security, gradual economic rebalancing, and innovation in green sectors", he said in his Feb 23 publication, "What to Watch at China's Two Sessions in 2026".

Technologies of future

Logan Wright, a partner at research firm Rhodium Group, said the plan "aims to transform the country into a tech-driven global power, while also boosting domestic demand", in comments published by Marketplace on Friday.

"In certain areas, China has done tremendously well over the past 10 years in industrial upgrading and in advanced manufacturing, and particularly in the technologies of the future," he said.

"And in terms of green and renewable technologies, in some of these areas, China is a market leader and is going to extend that lead. And that also means setting the standards by which everybody in the world plays."

A Moody's report earlier this month supported this view, saying China's self-reliance strategy enhances industrial competitiveness and mitigates trade risks.

"Rapid strengthening of local manufacturing capabilities has bolstered Chinese companies' market dominance and competitiveness," the report said, noting doubled domestic shares in construction machinery (90 percent), industrial robots (60 percent) and medical equipment (80 percent) over the decade.

It attributed gains to policy support, robust supply chains and market scale, adding that overseas expansion diversifies revenue.

Gupta from the Institute for China-America Studies spoke of the plan's response to tech tensions. "The fundamental primary goal is technology self-sufficiency. And to build out so that China will not be blackmailed in the area of core technologies."

For consumption rebalancing, the plan includes a 250 billion yuan trade-in program and income boosts such as higher rural pensions. Gupta emphasized the need for deeper reforms in social safety nets and hukou (household registration) systems.

"At the end of the day, it's going to be consumption which must be the leader in terms of how the Chinese economy restructures, develops and grows," he said.

Gupta also viewed China's global role as enduring.

"Regardless of what happens in China, China will be a stabilizing force in international relations and a very multilateral-centered and United Nations-centered force," he said, describing the new Five-Year Plan as positioning China for greater resilience and global contributions.

yifanxu@chinadailyusa.com